We can't afford to wait—every year of delay locks in another 4.5 million tonnes from coal boilers and pushes us further past our 2035 budget. The feebate for heavy trucks is exactly the kind of targeted push that can bend the curve, especially for low-income households who get the biggest rebate.

The UK's gas boiler mess proves that voluntary phase-outs don't work—they waited until 23 million units were installed and now face a £300 billion retrofit bill. A mandatory 2028 ban on new fossil-fuel heating is the only way to avoid that exact lock-in here.

The $400 million Industrial Decarbonisation Fund is well-intentioned, but will it actually cover the full cost of switching 1,200 coal sites to electric heat pumps? If businesses see a co-fund as a partial handout that still leaves them with major capital costs, uptake will be slow and the 2035 target slips.

This unlocks a huge win: New Zealand's grid is already 82% renewable, so every EV and heat pump we add is a direct, immediate emissions cut. With the right incentives and grid investment, we could hit 40% transport reduction by 2035 and become a global model for rapid electrification.

The tension here is real: skeptics worry about cost burdens, advocates want speed and equity, and pragmatists need proof of delivery. What might bridge that gap is a clear price cap on the grid levy and a binding review after two years to adjust rebates if adoption lags.