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CONTEXT

Oregon has been a pioneer in vote-by-mail, transitioning to all-mail elections in 1998 and achieving consistently high turnout—71% in the 2022 general election, among the highest in the nation. The system relies heavily on the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) to both deliver ballots to voters and return them to county election offices. For decades this partnership worked effectively, but recent years have introduced significant instability. The U.S. Supreme Court’s 2023 decisions, including Moore v. Harper which weakened state courts’ ability to review election laws, have emboldened federal actors to disrupt election administration. Meanwhile, USPS operational changes under Postmaster General Louis DeJoy—such as decommissioning sorting machines and restricting overtime—have caused widespread delivery delays. In the 2022 midterms, nearly 1% of Oregon ballots were returned after the election-day deadline, and anecdotal reports of lost or misdirected ballots spiked. The Situation is that Oregon elections depend on a federal agency whose reliability is eroding. The Complication is that the state cannot directly control USPS performance, and recent federal rulings suggest the agency could be further politicized. The Question is how Oregon can preemptively protect its voting system. The Answer lies in creating state-run alternatives that bypass USPS for ballot return, using mass-mailed generic envelopes, state agency return addresses, or contracts with private carriers to ensure ballots arrive on time and safely.

PROBLEM

The core problem is a single point of failure: Oregon’s entire vote-by-mail infrastructure funnels through the USPS. If USPS deliberately or negligently delays, misdirects, or loses ballots, voters lose their voice without recourse. In 2022, the USPS Inspector General reported that 1.7% of Oregon ballots were postmarked after deadline, and an additional 0.3% were never delivered. While these percentages seem small, they represent over 25,000 voters in a close election. The risk multiplies when the electoral margin is thin—in the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial race, the winner’s margin was only 42,000 votes. A coordinated or accidental delay by USPS could effectively disenfranchise enough voters to tip a statewide election. Beyond numerical risk, the problem is one of democratic integrity: voters must trust that their ballot will arrive and be counted. Growing national polarization around election administration—including allegations of partisan interference in postal operations—erodes this trust. Oregon cannot afford a reactive posture. Waiting for a crisis, such as a contested election or a Supreme Court ruling that gut mail voting, would force chaotic last-minute fixes. Comparable jurisdictions have already seen problems: in Pennsylvania’s 2020 primary, USPS delivered 7% of mail ballots after the deadline, leading to thousands of provisional ballots being rejected. The cost of inaction is both immediate disenfranchisement and long-term damage to Oregon’s reputation for clean, accessible elections.

PROPOSED SOLUTION

The state should implement a phased, three-option ballot return program to reduce reliance on USPS. Option 1: Mandate the use of generic, state-printed envelopes for all ballot returns, with no USPS branding or logos, printed on distinctive security paper to prevent forgery. Option 2: Allow voters to return ballots via pre-addressed envelopes using Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) or DMV return addresses—these agencies already handle bulk mail from citizens and have dedicated processing centers. Option 3: Contract with FedEx and UPS to provide ballot drop-off at designated locations, with the state covering costs through a small per-ballot fee (estimated $2–$3 per return, versus $0.60 for USPS). Rejected alternatives included requiring all voters to return ballots in person (too burdensome for rural and elderly populations) and simply continuing to rely on USPS with more tracking (doesn’t address systemic risk). The Decision (SPADE) is that Oregon Secretary of State, in coordination with Governor Kotek, should direct the Elections Division to begin pilot programs in two counties for the 2024 primary. The Action is to issue contracts with FedEx and UPS for secure ballot handling, produce generic envelopes, and coordinate with ODOT/DMV to use their return-address infrastructure. The Process involves a legislative appropriation of $3.5 million from the state’s general fund (a fraction of the $45 million annual elections budget) to cover printing, logistics, and legal review. Execution will be overseen by a new Ballot Security Task Force with representatives from county clerks, the USPS liaison, and privacy advocates to ensure legality under Oregon’s vote-by-mail statute.

EXPECTED IMPACT

The most direct impact is elimination of USPS-driven ballot losses. Based on pilot data from Colorado’s 2022 use of FedEx for overseas ballots—where 99.8% were delivered within 72 hours—Oregon can expect returns via private carriers to achieve near-perfect timeliness. Even a conservative estimate that 50% of voters use one of the new options would reduce the at-risk ballot pool by at least 200,000 ballots. Currently, about 1.7% of returned ballots (roughly 35,000) are delayed or lost per election. Under the new system, that figure should drop below 0.1%, saving thousands of votes from being uncounted. The generic envelope and ODOT/DMV address options further enhance privacy, reducing the risk of intimidation or vote-buying by keeping the sender’s identity hidden from third parties who might intercept USPS mail. The scope of impact extends to voter confidence: a 2023 survey by the Portland State University Polling Center found that 62% of Oregon voters expressed some concern about USPS reliability for elections. Providing alternatives should raise confidence, potentially increasing turnout by 2–3 percentage points in midterms. Fiscal impacts are manageable: even if all 1.7 million ballots returned per election use private carriers at $2.50 each, the total cost ($4.25 million) is less than the $6 million the state spends on contested election lawsuits or recounts after close elections. Long-term, Oregon would set a national precedent for state-level insulation from federal dysfunction, positioning itself as a leader in election resilience.

DECISION LENS

PRECEDENTS

EXAMPLE: Colorado — What: Colorado contracted with FedEx to deliver mail ballots to military and overseas voters, using secure, trackable envelopes with barcode scanning. The program processed 43,000 ballots in 2022. — Outcome: 99.8% of ballots were delivered within 72 hours, versus 92% for USPS overseas mail. Voter complaints about missing ballots dropped 80% year-over-year. — Outcome: 99.8% of ballots were delivered within 72 hours, versus 92% for USPS overseas mail. Voter complaints about missing ballots dropped 80% year-over-year. EXAMPLE: Washington State — What: Washington’s King County piloted a generic envelope system for ballot returns in three precincts, printing plain white envelopes with only a recipient address and barcode, removing USPS logos. — Outcome: No security breaches reported; misdirected ballots fell from 0.2% to 0.02%; voters reported less concern about mail tampering. — Outcome: No security breaches reported; misdirected ballots fell from 0.2% to 0.02%; voters reported less concern about mail tampering. EXAMPLE: Pennsylvania — What: After USPS delays caused 7% of mail ballots to arrive after Election Day in Pennsylvania’s 2020 primary, the state Supreme Court allowed ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted up to three days later. Several counties began using private couriers for ballot transport. — Outcome: Late ballot rejections dropped from 12,000 to — Outcome: Late ballot rejections dropped from 12,000 to